Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? | 52% YES | 48% NO |
Valve has not released Half-Life 3 or officially announced its development in the twenty years since Half-Life 2's 2004 launch. The company has instead pursued episodic content, spin-offs like Half-Life: Alyx (2020), and other franchises including Counter-Strike and Dota 2. A formal announcement that Half-Life 3 is in production by 31 December 2026 remains the resolution criterion, with the title requiring explicit use of "Half-Life 3" rather than alternative naming conventions.
Historical precedent suggests caution. Valve's development cycles have lengthened considerably; Half-Life 2 took six years in development, whilst Half-Life: Alyx required five years despite being a VR title with narrower scope. The studio has demonstrated willingness to shelve projects entirely—the cancelled Half-Life 2: Episode Three was never formally announced as cancelled, merely abandoned. Gabe Newell's public statements have grown increasingly evasive on the topic, with no credible reporting suggesting active development. The 35% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects modest speculative positioning against historical patterns of silence.
Near-term catalysts remain limited. Valve typically announces major releases through Steam platform updates or dedicated presentations; no such events are scheduled with Half-Life 3 attached. The studio's recent focus on Steam Deck optimisation and the Source 2 engine's gradual rollout across existing titles offer no direct signals. Industry observers monitor The Game Awards and major gaming conferences, though Valve has historically avoided these venues. Without substantive reporting from credible gaming press outlets, the probability's current formation appears anchored to historical scepticism rather than emerging development signals.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$111K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $110 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 52%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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