Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between BNK FEARX and Gen.G in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 14 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win the match against Gen.G. This market will resolve to "Gen.G" if Gen.G win the match against BNK FEARX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% YES | 75% NO |
BNK FEARX, a mid-tier LCK organisation, faces Gen.G, one of Korea's most decorated esports franchises with multiple world championship pedigrees, in a best-of-three League of Legends match scheduled for 14 May 2026. The 11% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial gap in competitive standing between the two rosters. Gen.G has consistently maintained top-four finishes in the LCK regular season over recent years, whilst BNK FEARX typically competes in the lower half of the standings. This probability distribution suggests traders are pricing in a heavily favoured Gen.G victory, with the minority position on BNK FEARX representing either contrarian positioning or hedge activity.
Historical LCK matchups between established powerhouses and mid-tier challengers show that upsets occur in roughly 15–20% of encounters when accounting for meta shifts, roster changes, and preparation advantages. However, Gen.G's institutional consistency and access to superior coaching infrastructure have historically narrowed such variance. The current 11% reflects a discount below typical upset rates, indicating market confidence in Gen.G's superiority.
Traders should monitor roster announcements and any last-minute substitutions in the days preceding the match, as mid-season personnel changes can materially shift competitive balance. LCK scheduling updates and potential format changes should also be tracked. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on match day, leaving minimal time for post-match resolution disputes. Any match postponement beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk considerations for both sides of the book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lck. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$520 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $519 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lck. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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