Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Uber’s total number of trips for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 3.2B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 3.6B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 4B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.4B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.8B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 3.4B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 3.8B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.2B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Uber's first quarter of 2026 will conclude on 31 March, with earnings typically released in late April or early May. The market is pricing a 100% probability that trip volumes will exceed a specified threshold, reflecting confidence in sustained demand across Uber's global ride-hailing and delivery operations. This pricing emerges from Polymarket's order book, where traders have positioned heavily on the affirmative side, leaving minimal ask-side liquidity at higher probability levels.
Historical context suggests Uber has demonstrated consistent quarter-on-quarter trip growth, particularly following seasonal patterns where Q1 typically shows sequential increases from Q4. The company reported 1.84 billion trips in Q3 2024, with growth trajectories suggesting continued expansion through 2025 and into 2026. However, the 100% implied probability warrants scrutiny—such certainty often reflects either a threshold set conservatively relative to consensus forecasts, or thin order book depth that hasn't been tested by meaningful sell-side interest.
Traders should monitor Uber's Q4 2025 earnings announcement, scheduled for February 2026, which will provide the most recent trip volume data and management guidance for Q1. Macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending, labour availability in gig markets, and competitive dynamics in key geographies remain material variables. The settlement window extends to 6 May 2026, allowing time for Uber's official earnings release and any clarifications regarding trip count methodology before resolution occurs.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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