Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Betmoar's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Betmoar will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $20M | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| $50M | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| $100M | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| $200M | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $400M | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Betmoar is preparing to launch a native token, with the market assessing whether its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of going live. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the initial trading price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The settlement window extends to January 2028, providing considerable time for the launch event to occur and resolve. Only an officially-issued token from Betmoar qualifies; synthetic derivatives, stablecoins, and memecoin variants are explicitly excluded from consideration.
Token launch valuations vary considerably based on project positioning, exchange listings, and initial liquidity conditions. Comparable recent launches have seen FDV ranges spanning from tens of millions to several hundred millions of pounds depending on backing, community size, and market conditions at launch. The current 77% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader consensus that Betmoar's launch will achieve the specified valuation threshold, though this probability incorporates uncertainty around both the timing and market reception of the token.
Key variables affecting resolution include the exchange venues securing listings, the timing of the launch announcement, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions at the moment of trading initiation. Traders should monitor Betmoar's official communications for launch date confirmation and exchange partnership details. Liquidity depth on launch day will materially influence price discovery; thin order books could produce outsized price movements, whilst substantial initial liquidity would enable more stable FDV establishment. The extended settlement window allows for multiple potential launch windows, though earlier launches would reduce time-value uncertainty for position holders.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Betmoar FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22K in lifetime turnover and $40K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $306 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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