Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Walczaki and Lavked in the BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 5 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Walczaki" if Walczaki win the match against Lavked. This market will resolve to "Lavked" if Lavked win the match against Walczaki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Round 4 of the BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 group stage will see Walczaki face Lavked in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match on 5 May at 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 100% implied probability for Walczaki, reflecting either overwhelming confidence in their victory or minimal liquidity at the current price. This extreme probability typically emerges in lower-tier regional esports fixtures where one team holds a substantial skill or seeding advantage, or where market participants have limited information about the opposing roster.
Historical precedent suggests that 100% probabilities in Counter-Strike group-stage matches often reflect significant rating disparities between opponents. Walczaki and Lavked operate in the European regional circuit, where team strength varies considerably. If Walczaki are seeded higher or have demonstrated superior recent form in qualifying rounds, the market's certainty becomes more defensible. Conversely, if Lavked have upset-capable players or recent roster changes, the probability may overstate Walczaki's dominance.
Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding team lineups, any last-minute roster changes, or schedule confirmations closer to the settlement window deadline of 20:00 UTC on 5 May. The seven-day cancellation clause means delays beyond 12 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Fixture confirmation and player availability updates from the BC Game Masters organisers will be critical signals for assessing whether the current pricing reflects genuine information or simply thin liquidity in a niche market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/bcgamemasters. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/bcgamemasters. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: