Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Phantom and against All authority in the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C, initially scheduled for May 3 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Phantom" if Phantom win the match against against All authority. This market will resolve to "against All authority" if against All authority win the match against Phantom. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: PHA (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Phantom face against All authority in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match within the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C on 3 May at 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Phantom victory, indicating the market has priced in an extremely decisive outcome. This extreme probability typically emerges when one team holds a substantial competitive advantage, though such pricing leaves minimal margin for upset scenarios or unexpected performance variations.
NODWIN's regional Counter-Strike tournaments have historically featured significant skill disparities between participating rosters, with top-seeded or higher-ranked teams frequently dominating play-in stages. The current probability aligns with patterns seen in comparable regional qualifiers where established squads face less developed opposition. However, best-of-three formats introduce inherent volatility—individual map selection, tactical preparation, and player form on the day can produce outcomes that deviate from pre-match expectations, particularly when probability estimates approach certainty.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes prior to the 3 May fixture. Schedule adherence matters significantly given the market's 7-day cancellation clause; delays beyond this window trigger a 50-50 resolution. Watch for official NODWIN announcements regarding match timing or format adjustments. Recent esports scheduling has occasionally shifted due to player availability or technical infrastructure issues, so confirmation closer to the event date remains material information for position management.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Phantom vs against All authority (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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