Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Misa Esports and Falcons Force in the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 6 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win the match against Falcons Force. This market will resolve to "Falcons Force" if Falcons Force win the match against Misa Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Misa Esports will face Falcons Force in a best-of-one Counter-Strike match within the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season, scheduled for 6 May at 2:00PM ET. The settlement window closes on 7 May at 00:15 UTC, allowing approximately 22 hours from match start for completion and resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Misa Esports, indicating the crowd has priced in an overwhelming expectation of victory for the Swedish-based organisation.
The 100% probability reading is unusual for competitive esports matches and warrants scrutiny against comparable ESEA Advanced fixtures. Historically, even matches featuring significantly favoured teams typically settle between 75–95% on prediction markets, accounting for map-dependent variance, tactical adjustments, and occasional upsets. The extreme confidence here may reflect either substantial roster advantages, recent form disparities, or limited liquidity on the order book constraining price discovery. Falcons Force, a lesser-established European roster, has faced consistent challenges in Advanced-tier competition.
Traders should monitor for match postponements or cancellations, which would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. ESEA's scheduling occasionally shifts fixtures due to player availability or technical issues. Additionally, any last-minute roster changes or stand-in announcements could materially alter expected outcomes. The narrow settlement window—ending just over 22 hours after the scheduled start—leaves minimal buffer for delayed matches, making fixture confirmation critical in the final hours before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/spyhiddentv. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Falcons Force (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$34 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/spyhiddentv. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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