Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Legacy and M80 in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against M80. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Legacy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Legacy and M80 will contest an upper bracket quarterfinal match in Counter-Strike at IEM Atlanta's Group B stage, scheduled for 11 May at 11:30 AM ET. The best-of-three format determines advancement, with the winner progressing further in the tournament bracket. Current Polymarket order book pricing implies a 62% probability that Legacy prevails, reflecting market participants' assessment of the matchup dynamics as of today.
Legacy has established itself as a consistent performer in North American Counter-Strike, whilst M80 has shown volatility in recent LAN competition. Historical precedent from comparable IEM events suggests that teams with stronger recent map pool consistency and stable roster chemistry tend to command probability premiums of 55–70% in similar quarterfinal matchups. The 62% figure sits within this range, indicating the market views Legacy as a moderate favourite without overwhelming confidence in the outcome.
Traders should monitor official IEM Atlanta scheduling updates and any last-minute roster changes announced by either organisation in the days preceding the match. Injury reports or stand-in players would materially shift probabilities, as would any technical delays that might compress preparation time. The settlement window extends to 12 May at 05:00 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer for completion; matches abandoned beyond that threshold or ending in forfeiture resolve to 50-50, creating tail risk for positions held close to the deadline.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $130K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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