Earnings

Trade: Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, StoneX is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for StoneX's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if StoneX reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If StoneX releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
—
Total Volume
$245
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
$231
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Market outcomes

Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings? 100% YES0% NO

Market context

StoneX Group is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on 6 May 2026, with consensus expectations for GAAP earnings per share of $1.49. The market will resolve affirmatively if the company reports EPS exceeding this threshold. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extremely tight positioning ahead of the earnings release or minimal liquidity at the current price, a common dynamic for earnings markets approaching their settlement window. With settlement closing at 21:00 UTC on the earnings date, traders have limited time to adjust positions once results are published.

StoneX's historical earnings performance provides context for evaluating this consensus figure. The financial services and commodities brokerage has demonstrated consistent profitability, though results fluctuate with commodity price volatility and client trading activity. Comparable earnings beats in the sector typically occur when volatility spikes drive higher trading volumes, whilst misses tend to coincide with subdued market conditions. The $1.49 estimate sits within a reasonable range given the company's recent quarterly trends, though the binary nature of earnings surprises means consensus figures are frequently breached in either direction.

Traders monitoring this market should track commodity price movements and volatility indices through early May, as these directly influence StoneX's revenue generation. Any significant announcements regarding regulatory changes affecting commodities trading or client concentration shifts could alter earnings dynamics. The company's forward guidance and management commentary during the earnings call will determine whether the market reprices substantially post-release, though by that point settlement will be imminent.

Wikipedia Context

  • Stoney's Extra Stout (Pig)
    Stoney's Extra Stout (Pig)

    Stoney's Extra Stout (Pig) is the eighth studio album by the Dead Milkmen. It was released by Restless Records in 1995. The Dead Milkmen had decided to break up prior to its release; the band (minus deceased bass player Dave Schulthise) would not record again until 2011's The King in Yellow.

  • Stone, Kent
    Stone, Kent

    Stone, also known as Stone-next-Dartford, is a village and civil parish in the Borough of Dartford in Kent, England, about 3 km east of Dartford and 27 kilometres from central London. It lies on the south bank of the River Thames. The A226 runs through Stone, linking Dartford with Greenhithe and Gravesend; the A2 and M25 motorway pass just north of the paris

  • Stones (Neil Diamond album)
    Stones (Neil Diamond album)

    Stones is the seventh studio album by Neil Diamond, recorded and released in 1971. It was one of the biggest hit recordings of his career. The conductors and arrangers were Lee Holdridge, Marty Paich and Larry Muhoberac.

  • Slutever (TV series)

    Slutever is an American television series broadcast by Viceland, starting in January 2018. The show is inspired by the blog and book of the same name by author Karley Sciortino, and a webseries, called Slutever for Vice, that was hosted on Sciortino's Slutever blog. In April 2018, Viceland ordered a second season of the show, which premiered in February 2019

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$245 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earnings contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will StoneX (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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