Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $50M | 76% YES | 24% NO |
| $300M | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| $100M | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| $200M | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| $400M | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Puffpaw, a governance token project, will launch with public trading availability, and this market tests whether its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of that launch event. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the token's price on the most liquid available exchange, with resolution occurring at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The settlement window extends to 1 January 2027, providing substantial time for the launch to occur and resolve.
Crypto token launches frequently experience significant price volatility in their opening 24 hours, driven by initial demand from early adopters and liquidity conditions on launch exchanges. Historical precedent suggests governance tokens often trade at valuations reflecting speculative positioning rather than fundamental metrics; comparable recent launches have seen FDV ranges vary considerably based on initial liquidity depth and community size. The 76% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader expectations that Puffpaw will achieve the specified FDV threshold, though this probability formation depends on the specific threshold value embedded in the full market title.
Key variables affecting resolution include the timing and exchange venue of Puffpaw's launch, initial token distribution mechanics, and liquidity conditions at the 24-hour mark. Traders should monitor Puffpaw's official channels for launch announcements, which typically signal imminent trading availability. Market-moving factors include the size of the initial liquidity pool, whether institutional or significant retail participation materialises at launch, and any technical issues affecting exchange operations during the critical first-day window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5.3M in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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