Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Immunefi's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Immunefi doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $200M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $600M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1.4B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $400M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $800M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1.2B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Immunefi, the leading bug bounty and vulnerability disclosure platform for decentralised finance, has not yet launched a governance token as of late 2024. This market concerns whether such a token, once launched and publicly tradable, will achieve a fully diluted valuation exceeding a specified threshold within 24 hours of that launch. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the price on the most liquid trading venue, assessed at 4:00 PM ET the day after launch becomes effective.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about token launch timing and initial valuation dynamics. Comparable governance token launches in the security and infrastructure space show highly variable first-day FDV outcomes. Curve Finance's CRV token launched at roughly $1.3bn FDV in August 2020, whilst Lido's LDO reached approximately $2.5bn within 24 hours in May 2023. These precedents demonstrate that established platforms with substantial user bases can command significant valuations immediately, though outcomes depend heavily on token supply design, allocation structure, and market conditions at launch.
Traders should monitor Immunefi's official communications for token launch announcements, which typically signal imminent trading availability. The platform's user base—comprising security researchers and DeFi protocols—represents a potential constituency for token distribution. Market conditions and broader crypto sentiment in late 2024 and early 2025 will materially influence initial pricing. The settlement window closes 1 January 2027, providing substantial time for a launch to occur, though no public timeline has been disclosed.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Immunefi FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$268K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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