Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
This market tracks Bitcoin's intraday movement between two specific noon timestamps on Binance: comparing the close price at 12:00 ET on 11 May 2026 against the close at 12:00 ET on 12 May 2026. Resolution hinges on a single-minute candle close at each timestamp, making this a precise technical measure rather than a broader directional bet. The 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about a 24-hour price movement with no directional consensus among active traders.
Single-day Bitcoin moves of meaningful magnitude occur regularly, though the specific constraint of comparing noon closures introduces noise from intraday volatility patterns. Historical precedent shows that noon ET timestamps often coincide with US market open dynamics and European afternoon trading, periods where Bitcoin exhibits elevated volume but not necessarily predictable directional bias. The even split in current probability suggests traders view the setup as genuinely neutral—neither bullish nor bearish positioning dominates the order book.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic data releases scheduled near those timestamps, as US economic announcements frequently drive risk-asset repricing at noon ET. Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, or employment figures released in early May 2026 could establish directional momentum heading into the settlement window. Binance's own operational status and any network events affecting the BTC/USDT pair would also matter, though such disruptions remain rare. The tight probability reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting 24-hour intraday noise without material catalyst visibility.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$156 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $156 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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