Trade: Arc FDV above 2028 one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $30K
- Total Volume
- $98
- 24h Volume
- $93
- Open Interest
- $99
Market outcomes
| $500M | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| $800M | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| $1B | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| $2B | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| $3B | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| $4B | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| $5B | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| $6B | 33% YES | 67% NO |
Market context
Arc, a decentralised finance protocol, is preparing to launch a governance token with public trading capability. The market will resolve based on whether the token's fully diluted valuation—calculated by multiplying total supply by the price 24 hours after launch—exceeds a specified threshold. The resolution hinges on the token achieving active, publicly tradable status, with pricing sourced from the most liquid available market.
Historical precedent suggests governance token launches frequently achieve substantial valuations within their first day, particularly when backed by established protocols or significant venture capital. Recent examples including Arbitrum's ARB token (which opened at a $4bn+ FDV) and Optimism's OP token demonstrate that well-capitalised projects routinely clear initial FDV benchmarks. The 93% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this pattern, though it also incorporates Arc-specific factors: the protocol's existing user base, the competitive landscape of similar platforms, and typical token distribution mechanics that affect circulating versus fully diluted supply calculations.
Traders monitoring this market should track Arc's official announcements regarding launch timing and token economics, particularly the total supply figure and initial distribution schedule. The specification of FDV rather than market capitalisation is material—a large total supply combined with modest initial circulation could produce a high FDV even with moderate trading volume. Any delays to the launch window, changes to tokenomics, or regulatory complications would alter the probability materially. The settlement window closing on 1 January 2028 provides substantial time for the launch event itself, though the specific 24-hour pricing window creates execution risk around market liquidity immediately post-launch.
Wikipedia Context
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Arc de TriompheThe Arc de Triomphe de l'Étoile, often simply called the Arc de Triomphe, is one of the most famous monuments in Paris, France. It is located at the western end of the Champs-Élysées, at the centre of the Place Charles de Gaulle—formerly known as the Place de l'Étoile—named for the star-shaped configuration formed by the convergence of twelve radiating avenu
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Arc flashAn arc flash is the light and heat produced as part of an arc fault, a type of electrical explosion or discharge that results from a connection through air to ground or another voltage phase in an electrical system.
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Arc-fault circuit interrupterAn arc-fault circuit interrupter (AFCI) or arc-fault detection device (AFDD) is a circuit breaker that breaks the circuit when it detects the electric arcs that are a signature of loose connections in home wiring. Loose connections, which can develop over time, can sometimes become hot enough to ignite house fires. An AFCI selectively distinguishes between a
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ARC fusion reactor
The ARC fusion reactor is a design for a compact 400 MW fusion reactor developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC). ARC aims to achieve an engineering breakeven of three. The key technical innovation is to use high-temperature superconducting magnets in place of ITER's low-temperature superconducting m
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Arc FDV above 2028 one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$98 in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $93 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Arc FDV above 2028 one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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