Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Hyperliquid's price moves upward or remains flat during a five-minute window on 11 May between 1:55 and 2:00 AM ET, as measured by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity during this specific overnight window, rather than a definitive market view. Such low-liquidity micro-timeframe markets typically show extreme probabilities simply due to sparse order placement and wide bid-ask spreads rather than genuine directional conviction.
Five-minute price movements in cryptocurrency are heavily influenced by microstructure noise, order flow timing, and exchange-specific volatility rather than fundamental catalysts. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-window markets on established tokens tend to resolve randomly relative to broader market conditions, with outcomes driven by technical bounces, liquidation cascades, or algorithmic rebalancing rather than news events. The overnight ET window compounds this unpredictability, as trading volume typically contracts and price discovery becomes thinner across major venues.
Traders monitoring this market should note that Hyperliquid's price action depends on broader crypto market sentiment and Bitcoin's overnight behaviour, given the high correlation of altcoins during low-liquidity periods. Any significant moves in major indices or unexpected announcements affecting the wider crypto sector could create volatility, though a five-minute resolution window makes capturing directional intent difficult. The Chainlink feed's specific data source means discrepancies between spot exchanges and the oracle's calculation could influence settlement, making feed monitoring essential for resolution clarity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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