Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Dogecoin's price movement over a five-minute window on 9 May 2026 at 8:40–8:45 PM ET will determine this market's resolution, with settlement occurring the following day. The Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream serves as the authoritative price source, meaning the resolution depends on that specific oracle feed rather than spot market prices across exchanges, which can diverge materially during volatile periods.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat five-minute candle. Such certainty in ultra-short-duration crypto price movements is historically rare and typically emerges when traders perceive negligible downside risk within the window—either because Dogecoin is trading in a tight range or because the settlement timeframe is too brief for meaningful adverse movement. Previous five-minute DOGE/USD windows have shown resolution to "Up" roughly 50–55% of the time under normal market conditions, making the current probability an outlier that warrants scrutiny of the order book's depth and recent fill activity.
Traders should monitor Dogecoin's volatility regime in the days preceding 9 May, particularly any scheduled announcements or macroeconomic releases that could trigger sharp intraday moves. Chainlink's data feed latency and any potential discrepancies between the oracle price and spot exchanges at the exact settlement timestamp represent operational risks. The five-minute window's brevity means that flash crashes or brief liquidation cascades on major exchanges could shift the outcome, though such events would need to occur precisely within the specified timeframe to affect resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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