Trade: Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $20K
- 24h Volume
- $150
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
The market is pricing the likelihood that a hurricane will make landfall along the continental United States coastline between early December 2025 and the end of May 2026. The 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the Atlantic hurricane season's typical activity patterns during this period, with the winter and early spring months historically producing fewer major hurricanes than the peak season months of August through October.
Landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during December through May are uncommon but not unprecedented. The 1935 New Year hurricane and Hurricane Beatrice (1976) both made US landfalls in January, whilst Hurricane Ike crossed into Florida in September 2008 after a lengthy Atlantic track. Climatologically, roughly 40% of Atlantic hurricane seasons produce no US landfalls at all, and winter months account for a negligible fraction of annual landfalls. The current 2% probability reflects this seasonal baseline, with traders pricing in the statistical rarity of tropical cyclone development and northward track alignment during cooler water months.
Traders should monitor the National Hurricane Center's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous Atlantic sea-surface temperature patterns that could influence tropical system genesis. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration typically issues updated seasonal outlooks in August and November, with the next major forecast revision expected in November 2025. Real-time tracking will commence once the Atlantic hurricane season formally begins on 1 June 2025, though the market window opens in December when seasonal activity is already declining. Any unexpected warm-water anomalies or atmospheric pattern shifts favouring tropical development would represent material information for position adjustments.
Wikipedia Context
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Hurricane MariaHurricane Maria was an extremely powerful and catastrophic tropical cyclone that affected the northeastern Caribbean in September 2017, particularly in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, which accounted for 2,975 of the 3,059 deaths. It is the deadliest and costliest hurricane to strike the archipelago and island of Puerto Rico, and is the deadliest hurrican
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Hurricane MatthewHurricane Matthew was a powerful and devastating tropical cyclone which caused catastrophic damage and a humanitarian crisis in Haiti, as well as widespread devastation across Cuba, the Bahamas, and the southeastern United States. The deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Stan in 2005, and the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since Felix in 2007, M
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Hurricane MelissaHurricane Melissa was an extremely powerful tropical cyclone that made a catastrophic landfall in Jamaica in late October 2025. By maximum sustained winds, it is tied with Hurricane Allen as the strongest Atlantic hurricane and with Hurricane Dorian and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane. Allen and Melissa are the on
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Hurricane IkeHurricane Ike was a long-lived, powerful and destructive tropical cyclone that swept through portions of the Greater Antilles and Northern America in September 2008, wreaking havoc on infrastructure and agriculture, particularly in Cuba and Texas. Ike took a similar track to the 1900 Galveston hurricane. The ninth tropical storm, fifth hurricane, and third m
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 2% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $5000 if YES resolves true — a 4900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$20K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for climate contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $150 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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