Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 9, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| The Great Divide - Noah Kahan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Man I Need - Olivia Dean | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of 9 May 2026 will be published on the Tuesday prior to that Saturday, reflecting streaming, radio, and sales data from the preceding Friday-Thursday tracking period. The settlement window closes on 4 May 2026, meaning the market resolves once Billboard publishes the chart—typically within days of the tracking week's conclusion. The current order book reflects 100% implied probability, suggesting traders view the chart's publication as virtually certain within the 14-day grace period afforded by the market rules.
Historical precedent indicates Billboard maintains consistent publication schedules except during major holidays, which are typically announced well in advance. The Hot 100 has published without interruption for decades, with only occasional minor delays during holiday weeks. Given that May 2026 contains no major US holidays affecting the tracking or publication schedule, traders are pricing in near-certainty that the chart will appear on schedule. The 100% probability reflects confidence in Billboard's operational reliability rather than any uncertainty about which song will rank first.
The primary catalyst remains any unexpected disruption to Billboard's publishing infrastructure or methodology changes announced before the settlement deadline. Traders should monitor Billboard's official announcements in late April 2026 for any schedule adjustments. Secondary considerations include tracking which songs are positioned for chart dominance in late April and early May, though the current market structure isolates the publication event itself from song-selection uncertainty.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 9" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for album contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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