Trade: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $103K
- Total Volume
- $1.2M
- 24h Volume
- $65K
- Open Interest
- $69K
Market outcomes
| <100B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100–200B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 200–300B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 300–400B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 400–600B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 600B+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| No IPO by June 30, 2026 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
Market context
Anthropic, the San Francisco-based AI safety company founded in 2021, has not announced any intention to pursue a public listing. The firm has raised approximately $7 billion in private funding rounds, most recently in September 2024, and remains privately held. This market settles on Anthropic's opening market capitalisation on its first trading day, should an IPO occur before 30 June 2026, or resolves to "No IPO" if no listing materialises by the deadline.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of any public signals suggesting near-term IPO plans. Comparable AI-focused companies have followed varied timelines: OpenAI remains private despite valuations exceeding $80 billion, whilst xAI and other frontier labs have shown no IPO momentum. Established technology firms typically signal IPO intentions 6–12 months in advance through SEC filings or management commentary, providing traders with concrete catalysts to monitor.
Traders should track regulatory developments, funding announcements, and executive statements from Anthropic's leadership. Recent private funding rounds have valued the company between $15 billion and $20 billion, though private valuations often diverge substantially from public market assessments. Any shift in capital strategy, changes in founding leadership, or strategic partnerships could alter IPO probability. The 18-month settlement window allows for significant market evolution, though the current order book pricing suggests traders assign minimal probability to a listing announcement in the near term.
Wikipedia Context
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Anthropic principle
In cosmology and philosophy of science, the anthropic principle, also known as the observation selection effect, is the proposition that the range of possible observations that could be made about the universe is limited by the fact that observations are only possible in the type of universe that is capable of developing observers in the first place. Propone
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Anthropic rock
Anthropic rock is rock that is made, modified and moved by humans. Concrete is the most widely known example of this. The new category has been proposed to recognise that human-made rocks are likely to last for long periods of Earth's future geological time, and will be important in humanity's long-term future.
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Anthropic
Anthropic is an American artificial intelligence (AI) company headquartered in San Francisco. It has developed a range of large language models (LLMs) named Claude and focuses on AI safety.
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Fine-tuned universeThe fine-tuned universe is the hypothesis that, because "life as we know it" could not exist if the constants of nature—such as the electron charge or the gravitational constant—had been even slightly different, the universe must be tuned specifically for life. In practice, this hypothesis is formulated in relation to dimensionless physical constants. These
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.2M in lifetime turnover and $103K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $65K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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