Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 485m | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 488m | 99% YES | 2% NO |
| 491m | 97% YES | 4% NO |
| 494m | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| 497m | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| 500m | 41% YES | 59% NO |
MrBeast's YouTube channel will either reach a specified subscriber threshold by 30 June 2026 or it will not. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability of "Yes," indicating traders are pricing this outcome as virtually certain within the settlement window. This probability formation suggests the threshold in question sits at or below MrBeast's subscriber count as of market creation, or represents a modest growth target given his historical trajectory.
MrBeast has maintained consistent subscriber growth since launching his channel in 2012, accelerating significantly from 2017 onwards. By early 2024, he had surpassed 200 million subscribers, making him one of the most-subscribed individual creators on the platform. Historical precedent shows that channels of this scale rarely experience subscriber losses; growth may decelerate but typically remains positive. Comparable creators like SET India and Zee Entertainment have sustained their positions in the 200+ million range for extended periods, suggesting that maintaining or modestly growing from an established base is the baseline expectation rather than an outlier outcome.
Key variables for traders to monitor include content release frequency, algorithmic promotion shifts, and any platform policy changes affecting creator monetisation or visibility. MrBeast's recent ventures into mainstream media and business expansion (including Feastables and MrBeast Gaming) could either amplify channel growth through cross-promotion or dilute focus on YouTube uploads. Subscriber audits by YouTube, whilst rare for channels of this scale, remain a technical dependency for accurate resolution sourcing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will MrBeast hit ___ Million subscribers by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for youtube contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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