Resolution criteria on PolyGram: General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| TPLF | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Party C | — | |
| Party D | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party F | — | |
| Party G | — | |
| Party H | — | |
| Party K | — | |
Ethiopia will hold parliamentary elections on 1 June 2026 to determine which party or coalition commands the most seats in the 547-member House of Peoples' Representatives. The current order book on Polymarket prices YES at 2%, implying substantial uncertainty about the outcome or a strong consensus favouring a particular incumbent or coalition. Settlement hinges on the party securing the greatest number of seats; in the event of a tie, the party receiving more valid votes prevails. If definitive results remain unknown by 31 December 2026, the market resolves to "Other".
Ethiopia's electoral history provides limited precedent for forecasting. The 2020 election, held amid civil conflict in the Tigray region, saw the Prosperity Party win overwhelming majorities amid disputed conditions and international scrutiny. Subsequent developments—including the 2022 ceasefire agreement, ongoing tensions, and the government's consolidation of power—shape expectations for 2026. The low implied probability may reflect either confidence in a dominant incumbent or deep uncertainty about the political environment's stability and the credibility of results.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding electoral commission preparations, candidate registration deadlines, and any constitutional or procedural changes. The security situation in peripheral regions, international observer participation, and statements from the African Union will signal confidence in the election's conduct. Developments in Abiy Ahmed's administration's political standing and any coalition-building announcements in the months preceding June 2026 will provide material information for reassessing probabilities.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethiopia Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for world elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $36 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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