Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 9 at 3:30PM ET: If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces are scheduled to meet on 9 May 2026 at 3:30 PM Eastern Time in a regular-season WNBA matchup. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 100% implied probability for this market, indicating traders have priced in near-certainty that the game will be completed with a winner determined. This extreme probability typically reflects either a heavily favoured outcome or minimal perceived risk of postponement or cancellation.
Historical WNBA scheduling shows that regular-season games rarely face cancellation absent extraordinary circumstances; postponements occur occasionally due to weather or facility issues but are usually rescheduled within the same season. The Aces have been the league's dominant franchise in recent years, whilst the Mercury have shown competitive strength with Diana Taurasi's continued presence. When one team holds a significant talent or form advantage, order books can drift toward extreme probabilities, though the 100% reading here suggests traders may be pricing in a specific outcome rather than merely assessing game completion risk.
Traders should monitor official WNBA scheduling announcements and any roster updates affecting either team's availability in the days preceding the fixture. Weather forecasts for the venue and any last-minute facility concerns would be relevant catalysts. The settlement window closes at 19:30 UTC on 9 May, allowing only the game window itself for resolution; any postponement would keep the market open until completion. Current market depth and whether the 100% probability holds as the fixture approaches will indicate whether traders expect a dominant performance or are simply confident in game completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$87K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for wnba contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $86K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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