Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 71°F or below | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| 72-73°F | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 74-75°F | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 76-77°F | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 78-79°F | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 80-81°F | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| 82-83°F | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 84-85°F | 1% YES | 99% NO |
This market concerns the lowest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on 13 May 2026, measured in Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, capturing the minimum temperature across all hours of that day. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 3% probability that the low will fall into the coldest range being priced, suggesting traders assess an exceptionally cold day as unlikely for early May in Miami.
Miami's May climate typically produces lows between 72–78°F, with the historical May average minimum around 75°F. Temperatures below 70°F in May are rare but not unprecedented; the coldest May low on record at KMIA is 59°F (1981). The current 3% probability reflects the statistical rarity of such an extreme outcome, though late-season cold fronts occasionally penetrate South Florida during spring transition months. Comparable years with unusually cool May weather in South Florida have occurred roughly once per decade, establishing a baseline for assessing tail-risk pricing.
Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in April 2026, particularly Atlantic tropical systems and upper-level atmospheric conditions that could drive anomalous cooling. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream positioning in late April will influence whether any cold air masses reach South Florida by mid-May. Standard meteorological outlooks from NOAA become increasingly reliable 10–14 days before the settlement date, providing the most actionable catalyst for reassessing current probabilities as May approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$544 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $544 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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