Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 7°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 9°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 10°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 11°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 8°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 12°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 13°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 14°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 3 May 2026, the lowest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extremely wide bid-ask spreads or minimal liquidity at present. This is typical for weather markets far in advance, where traders have limited confidence in positioning until seasonal patterns become clearer and medium-range forecasts enter the reliable window (typically 10–14 days prior).
Historical May temperatures at London City Airport show considerable variability. The station's records indicate May minima typically range between 5–12°C, though outlier cold snaps occasionally push readings below 5°C. Early May specifically sits at the tail end of spring's unpredictable phase, when Arctic air masses can still penetrate southern England, whilst warm continental systems from the south become increasingly probable. Recent years have seen May temperatures trending slightly warmer than the 30-year average, though individual days remain subject to synoptic weather patterns rather than longer-term trends.
Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's seasonal outlooks and European weather model consensus from late April onwards, when deterministic forecasts become actionable. The North Atlantic Oscillation and jet stream positioning in late April will be critical indicators of whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic low-pressure systems dominate early May. Any sudden stratospheric warming events in March or April could influence upper-atmospheric patterns affecting May's weather. Current order book inactivity reflects the genuine forecasting difficulty at this range; meaningful trading typically emerges within two weeks of settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in London on May 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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