Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hakeem Jeffries | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| Chi Ossé | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
New York's 8th Congressional District will hold a Democratic primary election in 2026 to determine the party's nominee for the House seat. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 94% probability that such a primary will occur, reflecting traders' assessment that the Democratic Party will proceed with a contested or uncontested nomination process rather than cancelling the primary entirely.
The high implied probability reflects the institutional norm that major party primaries in competitive districts proceed as scheduled. New York's 8th District, which encompasses parts of Brooklyn and Queens, has consistently held Democratic primaries in recent cycles. Historical precedent suggests primaries are cancelled only under extraordinary circumstances—such as a sitting representative's death or incapacity—which would trigger special election procedures instead. The current probability reflects the baseline expectation that no such disruption occurs between now and the June 2026 settlement window.
Traders should monitor announcements from the New York State Board of Elections regarding the primary calendar, any unexpected vacancies in the seat, and potential legal challenges to the primary process. The New York primary filing deadline typically falls in March or April, providing a concrete checkpoint for whether candidates formally enter the race. Additionally, any significant changes to New York's electoral law or redistricting could theoretically affect whether a primary proceeds, though such changes would require legislative action. The settlement relies on official results announced by the New York Democratic Party, making the state party's formal declaration the decisive catalyst for resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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