Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hyperliquid's price movement over a five-minute window on 2 May at 10:00–10:05 PM ET will determine this market's resolution. The Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream serves as the official price reference, meaning spot market prices or other exchanges are irrelevant to settlement. A 100% implied probability on the YES side reflects an expectation that the price will remain flat or rise during this specific interval, though five-minute windows inherently carry substantial noise and volatility risk.
Five-minute price prediction markets typically exhibit extreme probability distributions because the timeframe is too brief for meaningful fundamental shifts. Historical comparable cases—such as short-window crypto markets on Polymarket—show that when probabilities reach 100%, they often reflect either a genuine absence of expected volatility or an illiquidity premium where the order book has insufficient depth to price in realistic tail risks. The current probability may also reflect recent price stability in HYPE or a lack of scheduled announcements during this exact window.
Traders should monitor whether any protocol updates, exchange listings, or macroeconomic releases are scheduled near this five-minute interval. Hyperliquid's perpetual futures platform activity and broader crypto market sentiment on 2 May could influence volatility expectations. The Chainlink data feed itself occasionally experiences minor latency or rounding variations, though these rarely affect five-minute resolution materially. Order book depth on Polymarket will determine whether the 100% probability can be challenged or whether it reflects genuine consensus that downward movement is implausible in this window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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