Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether the Chainlink ETH/USD data stream will show a higher price at 10:35PM ET on 9 May 2026 compared to 10:30PM ET the same evening—a five-minute window. The resolution depends entirely on Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot market prices, which can occasionally diverge due to latency or data aggregation differences. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity in this ultra-short-duration contract, typical for five-minute price movements where directional conviction is difficult to establish.
Five-minute Ethereum price movements are largely noise-driven, with historical data showing roughly equal frequency of upward and downward ticks across comparable windows. The 0% probability displayed suggests either no active market-makers have posted bids, or existing orders reflect extreme scepticism about upside moves. On Polymarket's order book, such extreme probabilities often indicate illiquidity rather than genuine conviction; traders typically require substantial odds to commit capital to such short-dated, low-signal events.
Traders monitoring this contract should note that Ethereum's price action on 9 May will depend on broader market conditions that day—any significant news regarding Federal Reserve policy, crypto regulation, or major protocol developments could create volatility. However, within a five-minute window, macro catalysts matter less than microstructure: order flow imbalances, liquidations on leveraged exchanges, or algorithmic trading activity are more likely to move the Chainlink feed. The settlement occurs at 02:35 UTC on 10 May, giving traders approximately 24 hours from the current moment to assess positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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