Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Dogecoin's price movement over a five-minute window on 5 May will determine this market's resolution, with settlement based on Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for an upward or flat five-minute close, suggesting traders perceive minimal downside risk within this compressed timeframe. Such extreme probabilities in short-duration markets typically reflect either genuine conviction about directional bias or the practical difficulty of pricing meaningful volatility into a five-minute window where transaction costs and slippage dominate expected returns.
Historical precedent shows that five-minute cryptocurrency price movements rarely exhibit strong directional bias absent major news events or market dislocations. Dogecoin's typical intraday volatility and relatively liquid order books mean that random walk dynamics often dominate such brief intervals. Markets pricing 100% probability on either direction in short windows have historically resolved against the consensus when unexpected announcements or flash events occur, though the frequency of such occurrences within any given five-minute slot remains low.
Traders should monitor for scheduled announcements or social media activity from prominent Dogecoin advocates in the hours preceding the settlement window, as these have historically moved retail sentiment sharply. The Chainlink data feed's specific methodology—including its source exchanges and update frequency—may also diverge slightly from individual spot prices during volatile moments. Broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly Bitcoin's direction, often correlate with Dogecoin price action and warrant attention as a leading indicator.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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