Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for BNB's price movement against USD, settling on Chainlink's data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The resolution hinges on whether BNB/USD at 3:10AM ET on 6 May 2026 closes at or above the 3:05AM level. The current 100% implied probability reflects the order book's extreme skew, suggesting traders are pricing near-zero volatility risk over this compressed timeframe.
Five-minute price windows for major assets typically exhibit minimal directional conviction in prediction markets, as intraday noise and bid-ask spreads create substantial uncertainty. Historical precedent from similar ultra-short-duration crypto markets shows that 100% probabilities rarely persist when settlement approaches; liquidity providers typically demand wider spreads to accommodate tail risks from flash moves, data feed latency, or exchange connectivity issues. The Polymarket order book's current configuration suggests either thin liquidity depth or a consensus view that BNB faces no meaningful downside pressure during this specific window.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, particularly any significant moves in the 24 hours prior. Chainlink's feed aggregates data from multiple sources with a slight lag, so sudden volatility spikes or exchange outages could affect the precise closing read. Regulatory announcements affecting Binance or broader crypto markets remain a tail risk, though the compressed timeframe limits exposure to major news cycles. The current probability leaves minimal margin for error; any meaningful downward pressure would likely trigger rapid repricing on Polymarket's order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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