Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Druzkhivka | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Kramatorsk | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Kherson | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| Sloviansk | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Sumy | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Dopropillia | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Kharkiv | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Zaporizhia | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The market concerns whether Russian forces will capture territory within any specified Ukrainian city or settlement by the end of June 2026, with resolution determined by the Institute for the Study of War's publicly available map. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 9% probability of this outcome, reflecting trader assessment that Russian advances into major urban centres remain unlikely over the next eighteen months despite ongoing territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.
Historical precedent suggests caution about rapid urban capture. Russia's assault on Mariupol lasted roughly three months (February–May 2022) despite the city's smaller size and strategic importance; Bakhmut consumed nearly a year of fighting (August 2022–May 2023); and Sievierodonetsk required sustained urban combat. These cases demonstrate that even when Russia achieves surrounding positions, converting that advantage into full city control involves significant attrition and logistical strain. The current 9% probability reflects this friction between territorial momentum and the distinct difficulty of urban warfare.
Traders should monitor frontline dynamics in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, where Russian forces currently concentrate effort. Recent ISW assessments (as of late 2024) indicate Russian advances averaging 500–800 metres daily in select sectors, though this pace varies considerably. Key variables include Ukrainian force rotation and Western ammunition supply levels, particularly long-range systems that constrain Russian staging areas. Any major shift in manpower availability—whether through mobilisation changes, casualty rates, or force redeployment—could alter the trajectory. The resolution mechanism's dependence on ISW map updates means traders should track that source's publication schedule and methodology consistency through mid-2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $135K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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