Trade: UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sitting Cabinet Minister of the United Kingdom as of February 4, 2026 ET, resigns from their position in the cabinet by February 28, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Only an actual resignation will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. If the Prime Minister accepts a letter of resignation from a cabinet minister, or a cabinet minister otherwise formally resigns, this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, even if the cabinet minister in question agrees to stay for a period of time for any reason (e.g., until a replacement is ready, etc.).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $111K
- 24h Volume
- $148
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| February 28 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether any member of the current UK Cabinet will formally resign their ministerial position between early February and late February 2026. A resignation occurs when a minister submits a letter of resignation that the Prime Minister accepts, triggering immediate market resolution to Yes regardless of any agreed transition period. The current 0% implied probability reflects Polymarket's order book pricing, indicating traders are assigning negligible likelihood to such an event within this specific four-week window.
Cabinet resignations in the UK typically cluster around moments of acute political pressure: policy disagreements, personal misconduct revelations, or broader governmental crises. The past decade has seen ministers resign over various triggers, from Amber Rudd's departure in 2019 over the Windrush scandal to more recent departures linked to policy disputes. However, resignations are episodic rather than routine, and the probability of one occurring in any given month depends heavily on whether specific triggering events materialise. The absence of imminent scandals or policy flashpoints currently visible in the political calendar supports the low probability assessment.
Traders should monitor parliamentary business schedules, particularly contentious legislation or spending announcements that might provoke backbench or ministerial dissent. Media coverage of Cabinet tensions, particularly around the Budget or major policy announcements, would signal rising resignation risk. Any personal or professional controversies affecting sitting ministers—investigated through parliamentary committees or press reporting—represent the most likely catalysts. The settlement window's brevity means only developments occurring in real time during February will matter; longer-term political instability would fall outside the resolution criteria.
Wikipedia Context
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Cabinet of the United KingdomThe Cabinet of the United Kingdom is the senior decision-making body of the Government of the United Kingdom. A committee of the Privy Council, it is chaired by the prime minister as the monarch's most senior adviser, and its members include secretaries of state and senior ministers of state. Members of the Cabinet are appointed by the prime minister and are
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Cabinet OfficeThe Cabinet Office is a ministerial department of the Government of the United Kingdom. It is responsible for supporting the prime minister and Cabinet. It is composed of various units that support Cabinet committees and coordinate the delivery of government objectives via other departments. As of December 2021, it had more than 10,200 staff, mostly civil se
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United Kingdom cabinet committee
The British government is directed by the Cabinet, a group of senior government ministers led by the Prime Minister. Most of the day-to-day work of the Cabinet is carried out by Cabinet committees, rather than by the full Cabinet. Each committee has its own area of responsibility, and their decisions are binding on the entire Cabinet.
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2006 British cabinet reshuffleFollowing poor results for the Labour Party in the local elections in England on 4 May 2006, British Prime Minister Tony Blair held a cabinet reshuffle the following day.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$111K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for uk contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $148 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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