Resolution criteria on PolyGram: If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Switzerland | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Syria | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| United Kingdom | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| Israel | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Canada | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Mexico | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Saudi Arabia | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Japan | 69% YES | 31% NO |
The market concerns whether Donald Trump will make at least one international visit to each of several listed countries during 2026. The 100% implied probability across the order book reflects the high baseline likelihood that a sitting U.S. President undertakes multiple foreign trips annually, particularly given Trump's first term pattern of frequent international travel and diplomatic engagements. The current pricing suggests traders view presidential travel as near-certain, with resolution hinging on whether Trump visits specific nations rather than whether international travel occurs at all.
Historical precedent supports this assessment. During his 2017–2021 presidency, Trump visited over 100 countries, averaging roughly 20 foreign trips per year. His second term, beginning January 2025, has already included visits to Japan, India, and other nations within weeks of inauguration. The baseline expectation for any U.S. President is substantial international engagement, particularly given standing alliances, trade negotiations, and diplomatic obligations that structure the presidential calendar.
Traders should monitor the 2026 presidential schedule as it becomes public, typically released by the White House several months in advance. Key catalysts include announcements of state visits, G7 or G20 summits, NATO meetings, and bilateral diplomatic engagements. Economic conditions, domestic political crises, or international conflicts could theoretically reduce travel frequency, though such disruptions would need to be severe. The settlement window extends through 31 December 2026, providing full-year visibility into Trump's actual movements as documented by official U.S. government sources.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$390K in lifetime turnover and $145K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $38K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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