Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained arial phenomena by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The question concerns whether the Trump administration will release previously classified government documents related to unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) or extraterrestrial life between now and 31 December 2026. The market currently trades at 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting a consensus view that declassification is virtually certain within this timeframe. This extreme probability suggests traders are pricing in either a near-certain commitment or expectation of action, rather than genuine uncertainty about the outcome.
Historical precedent provides context for interpreting this confidence. The US government has previously declassified UAP-related materials, including the 2023 release of a classified intelligence report on UAP to Congress and subsequent public disclosures by the Department of Defence. Trump's first term saw increased public discussion of UAP through official channels, though formal declassification remained limited. The current 100% probability may reflect expectations based on Trump's stated interest in transparency on the topic and his executive authority to declassify documents without congressional approval.
Traders should monitor announcements from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Department of Defence statements on UAP policy, and any executive orders signed during Trump's term. The timeframe is relatively compressed—less than two years—which constrains the window for action. Congressional pressure, media investigations, or specific Freedom of Information Act requests could accelerate declassification decisions. The market's extreme probability leaves little room for traders to profit from additional positive news, creating asymmetric risk if declassification does not materialise as expected.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$845K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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