Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AppLovin | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Microsoft | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Amazon | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Meta | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Walmart | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Elon Musk / X (Twitter) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Larry Ellison/Oracle | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The US government has pursued forced divestiture of TikTok's American operations since 2020, with legislation signed in April 2024 requiring ByteDance to sell by January 2025 or face a ban. The Supreme Court upheld the law in January 2025, leaving ByteDance with a narrow window to negotiate a sale or transfer of ownership. The current 4% implied probability on Polymarket reflects the substantial technical, regulatory, and commercial obstacles to completing any acquisition agreement by the June 2026 deadline specified in this market.
Historical precedent suggests forced tech divestitures face protracted timelines and frequent collapse. The attempted sale of Grindr by Chinese owner Kunlang Global in 2020 took years to navigate regulatory scrutiny before eventual approval in 2022. Microsoft's failed acquisition of TikTok in 2020 demonstrates how political pressure and national security concerns can derail even well-resourced bidders. The complexity of TikTok's algorithm, content moderation systems, and data infrastructure—combined with ByteDance's reluctance to sell at any price—makes valuation and due diligence exceptionally difficult for potential acquirers.
Key catalysts include any formal announcement from ByteDance or a prospective buyer regarding acquisition discussions, regulatory guidance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and Congressional action clarifying divestiture terms. Recent reporting indicates ByteDance has explored licensing arrangements rather than full asset sales, suggesting the company may resist traditional acquisition structures. The order book on Polymarket currently prices in the low probability that a binding agreement materialises within the settlement window, reflecting both the compressed timeline and the structural barriers to deal completion.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will acquire TikTok?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tiktok contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $200 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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