Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Federica Urgesi and Maja Chwalinska in the Parma, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federica Urgesi' if Federica Urgesi advances against Maja Chwalinska. This market will resolve to 'Maja Chwalinska' if Maja Chwalinska advances against Federica Urgesi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska Set 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Federica Urgesi and Maja Chwalinska are scheduled to meet in the opening round of the Parma WTA tournament on 11 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Urgesi's advancement at 13%, implying Chwalinska is favoured at 87%. This probability reflects the relative ranking and recent form of both players as assessed by the market's active traders.
Urgesi, an Italian player competing on home soil, typically benefits from crowd support in domestic tournaments, though this advantage has historically been modest in early-round matches against seeded or higher-ranked opponents. Chwalinska, a Polish player, has shown consistent performance on the WTA circuit. The 13% probability for Urgesi suggests the market views this as a significant upset scenario, with Chwalinska's ranking and recent results weighted heavily in the pricing.
Traders should monitor official tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals or schedule adjustments from the WTA, particularly given the settlement window extends to 18 May—allowing seven days for match completion. Injury reports or surface-specific performance data released closer to the event date could shift the probability, as could any changes to either player's preparation schedule. The Parma event typically runs on clay, a surface where home advantage can occasionally prove more influential than baseline rankings suggest.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$51K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $51K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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