Trade: Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Lola Radivojevic in the Paris, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emma Navarro' if Emma Navarro advances against Lola Radivojevic. This market will resolve to 'Lola Radivojevic' if Lola Radivojevic advances against Emma Navarro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $182
- 24h Volume
- $182
- Open Interest
- $146
Market outcomes
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic Match O/U 21.5 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic Match O/U 22.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic Match O/U 23.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic Set 1 Winner | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Market context
Emma Navarro, the American tennis player ranked in the top 50, faces Lola Radivojevic in a first-round match at Roland Garros scheduled for 12 May 2026. The 71% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects Navarro's superior ranking and recent form relative to Radivojevic, a Serbian player with limited WTA tour exposure. The current pricing suggests the market has already priced in Navarro's seeding advantage and historical head-to-head dynamics, though the match remains subject to the variables inherent in best-of-three clay-court tennis.
Historical context shows that top-50 ranked players typically advance against unranked or lower-ranked opponents at Grand Slams with roughly 70–75% frequency, accounting for upsets driven by surface preference, injury, or tactical matchups. Radivojevic's limited Grand Slam experience and clay-court record would support the higher probability assigned to Navarro, though clay surfaces have historically produced more volatility than hard courts, occasionally favouring players with strong defensive positioning.
Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations, any late injury withdrawals or illness announcements from either player, and weather delays that could affect scheduling. Court assignments and match timing—the 4:00 AM ET slot suggests an early morning Paris court—may influence fatigue factors. The settlement window closes 19 May 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before resolution triggers the 50-50 clause.
Wikipedia Context
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Paris MarathonThe Paris Marathon is an annual marathon hosted by the city of Paris, France. It is the largest running event in France in terms of finishers and is typically among the five largest marathons in the world.
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Matthew ParisMatthew Paris, also known as Matthew of Paris, was an English Benedictine monk, chronicler, artist in illuminated manuscripts, and cartographer who was based at St Albans Abbey in Hertfordshire. He authored a number of historical works, many of which he scribed and illuminated himself, typically in drawings partly coloured with watercolour washes, sometimes
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Paris MastersThe Paris Masters, known as the Rolex Paris Masters for sponsorship reasons, is an annual indoor tennis tournament for male professional players held in Nanterre, France, a western suburb of Paris, at La Défense Arena, and is held in early November. It is part of the ATP Masters 1000 events on the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) Tour. The tournamen
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Paris-East Créteil UniversityParis-East Créteil University is a public university located in Créteil, Île-de-France, France. It was inaugurated in 1970. The institution provides instruction in the social sciences, educational sciences, economics and development, administration and exchange, law, arts and humanities, and science and technology.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$182 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $182 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Paris: Emma Navarro vs Lola Radivojevic"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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