Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Xinxin Yao and JiaYi Wang in the ITF Women Wuning, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xinxin Yao' if Xinxin Yao advances against JiaYi Wang. This market will resolve to 'JiaYi Wang' if JiaYi Wang advances against Xinxin Yao. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs JiaYi Wang | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Xinxin Yao and JiaYi Wang are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Wuning on 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability favouring Yao's advancement, suggesting the market perceives a meaningful edge in her favour relative to Wang. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and reflects the aggregate assessment of participants pricing the match outcome.
Context for reading this probability requires examining both players' recent ITF performance trajectories and head-to-head records where available. Yao's ranking, recent match results, and surface-specific performance on hard courts (Wuning's typical surface) provide the baseline for comparison against Wang's equivalent metrics. Players competing regularly on the ITF circuit show measurable variance in form week-to-week; a 67% probability suggests the market has identified a notable but not dominant advantage for Yao, leaving meaningful uncertainty around Wang's chances.
Traders should monitor several factors ahead of the 12 June settlement deadline. Withdrawal announcements or injury updates from either player would trigger immediate repricing. Tournament scheduling changes—particularly any delay extending beyond seven days without a completed match—would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent ITF results for both players posted to official databases will provide updated form data. Surface conditions at Wuning and any late-stage draw information may also shift the probability as the match date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs JiaYi Wang" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$148 in lifetime turnover and $971 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $148 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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