Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Louis Wessels and John Sperle in the ITF Men Rosbach, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Louis Wessels' if Louis Wessels advances against John Sperle. This market will resolve to 'John Sperle' if John Sperle advances against Louis Wessels. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Rosbach: Louis Wessels vs John Sperle | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Louis Wessels and John Sperle are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's Rosbach tournament on 3 June 2026. The match is set for 08:00 ET, with the settlement window closing on 10 June at 12:00 UTC. Current order-book pricing on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for Wessels to advance, suggesting the market views Sperle as the marginal favourite. This probability has formed through live trading activity on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the consensus price.
ITF Men's events at this level typically feature players ranked between 300–600 on the ATP rankings, with outcomes heavily influenced by recent match form and surface-specific performance. Wessels and Sperle's head-to-head record, if any exists, would be a primary reference point; absent that, their recent results on clay courts (Rosbach is played on clay) and performance in comparable ITF tournaments provide the most reliable historical anchors. The 44% probability suggests near-parity in the market's assessment, with modest confidence in either player's advantage.
Traders should monitor official ITF and tournament announcements for any schedule changes or withdrawals in the days preceding 3 June. Weather disruptions are a material risk given the settlement window's seven-day buffer; any delay beyond 9 June without a completed match triggers a 50-50 resolution. Recent injury reports or last-minute ranking adjustments for either player could shift the order book significantly, particularly if either player's participation status becomes uncertain.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Rosbach: Louis Wessels vs John Sperle" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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