Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Kosuke Ogura and Taisei Ichikawa in the ITF Men Wuning, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 12:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kosuke Ogura' if Kosuke Ogura advances against Taisei Ichikawa. This market will resolve to 'Taisei Ichikawa' if Taisei Ichikawa advances against Kosuke Ogura. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wuning: Kosuke Ogura vs Taisei Ichikawa | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Kosuke Ogura faces Taisei Ichikawa in an ITF Men's tournament match scheduled for 14 May 2026 at Wuning. The current order book on Polymarket prices Ogura's advancement at 28%, implying Ichikawa as the favoured outcome. This probability reflects real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask orders determining the precise implied odds visible to incoming traders.
Both players operate primarily on the ITF circuit, where match outcomes depend heavily on recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Japanese players competing in ITF events typically show variable results depending on tournament tier and opponent ranking. Historical ITF matchups between similarly-ranked competitors often settle within a 35–65 range when one player enters as favourite, suggesting the current 28% for Ogura reflects either a documented advantage for Ichikawa or recent performance data favouring the latter. Comparable ITF fixtures involving Japanese nationals have occasionally shifted 10–15 percentage points following injury announcements or withdrawal news.
Traders should monitor official ITF and ATP Challenger tour announcements through May for any schedule changes, player withdrawals, or late injury disclosures that could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match is delayed beyond seven days without completion. Surface conditions at Wuning and any qualifying round results involving either player may also influence late-stage trading, as ITF main draw seeding and momentum effects occasionally shift probabilities in the final week before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wuning: Kosuke Ogura vs Taisei Ichikawa" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$34 in lifetime turnover and $334 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $34 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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