Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nagi Hanatani and Momoko Kobori in the ITF Women Kurume, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nagi Hanatani' if Nagi Hanatani advances against Momoko Kobori. This market will resolve to 'Momoko Kobori' if Momoko Kobori advances against Nagi Hanatani. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kurume: Nagi Hanatani vs Momoko Kobori | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Completed Match | 99% YES | 1% NO |
Nagi Hanatani and Momoko Kobori are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Kurume tournament on 13 May 2026. The match represents a domestic Japanese fixture within the ITF circuit, where both players operate primarily. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 53% implied probability for Hanatani's advancement, suggesting near-parity in market expectations with a modest lean towards the higher-seeded or more favoured player.
ITF women's matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when both competitors hold similar ranking profiles or recent form trajectories. Historical data from comparable domestic ITF tournaments shows that unseeded or lower-ranked players frequently upset expectations, with upset rates ranging between 35–45% depending on ranking differential. The current 53–47 split indicates the market has priced in meaningful uncertainty rather than a dominant favourite scenario, consistent with patterns where ranking gaps of fewer than 100 positions yield competitive matchups.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ITF's official entry lists, typically finalised 48 hours before competition begins. Recent form updates from both players' ITF circuit results in April and early May will provide concrete data on momentum and surface adaptation. Weather conditions at Kurume and court surface specifics may also shift expectations, particularly if either player has documented strengths or weaknesses on clay versus hard courts. The settlement window extends to 21 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date for match completion or rescheduling.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kurume: Nagi Hanatani vs Momoko Kobori" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$277 in lifetime turnover and $41K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $277 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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