Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Piotr Galus and Noa Vukadin in the ITF Men Bol, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Piotr Galus' if Piotr Galus advances against Noa Vukadin. This market will resolve to 'Noa Vukadin' if Noa Vukadin advances against Piotr Galus. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bol: Piotr Galus vs Noa Vukadin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Piotr Galus and Noa Vukadin are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's circuit event at Bol, Croatia on 27 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a Galus victory, reflecting either minimal trading activity or strong market consensus favouring Vukadin. With settlement occurring just days after the scheduled match date (3 June 2026), the window for price discovery remains narrow, and any liquidity imbalance can produce extreme implied probabilities even when underlying match odds may be closer.
ITF Men's matches at lower-tier venues frequently feature players with limited public ranking data and inconsistent recent form records. Galus and Vukadin's head-to-head history, surface preference on clay, and recent match results against comparable opponents would typically anchor trader expectations, yet the 0% probability suggests either one player carries overwhelming favouritism or the market has received no meaningful participation. Early-round ITF matches also carry elevated cancellation and retirement risk compared to ATP events, which could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match fails to produce a decisive winner.
Traders should monitor the official ITF draw confirmation and any player withdrawal announcements through the ATP/ITF official channels in the week preceding 27 May. Weather conditions at Bol during late May and last-minute scheduling changes are material catalysts. The extremely wide probability gap warrants caution; if Galus possesses genuine competitive strength, the current pricing may reflect information asymmetry rather than fundamental match assessment.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bol: Piotr Galus vs Noa Vukadin" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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