Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Lisa Claeys and Irina Balus in the ITF Women Szentendre, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 6:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lisa Claeys' if Lisa Claeys advances against Irina Balus. This market will resolve to 'Irina Balus' if Irina Balus advances against Lisa Claeys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Szentendre: Lisa Claeys vs Irina Balus | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Lisa Claeys and Irina Balus are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Szentendre tournament on 28 May 2026, with the match originally set for 6:15 AM ET. The market currently reflects a 0% implied probability for Claeys advancing, suggesting the order book has priced her as a decisive underdog or that minimal liquidity exists at present price levels. Settlement occurs by 4 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved outcome beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.
The 0% probability warrants scrutiny given that ITF Women's events typically feature competitive draws where upsets occur regularly. Comparable lower-tier professional matches on Polymarket often show non-zero probabilities even for players ranked substantially lower, reflecting genuine uncertainty in outcomes. The absence of any YES-side liquidity here suggests either that Balus is substantially favoured based on recent form and rankings, or that the market has simply not yet attracted traders willing to back Claeys at any price.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both players' participation as the tournament date approaches, any recent injury announcements, and head-to-head records if available. ITF tournament schedules occasionally shift due to weather or administrative changes; traders should monitor the official ITF website and tournament updates through late May. Current ranking differentials and recent match results for both players will become material once qualifying rounds conclude and seedings are finalised.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Szentendre: Lisa Claeys vs Irina Balus" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$45 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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