Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Federica Bilardo and Julia Adams in the ITF Women Szentendre, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 10:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Federica Bilardo' if Federica Bilardo advances against Julia Adams. This market will resolve to 'Julia Adams' if Julia Adams advances against Federica Bilardo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Szentendre: Federica Bilardo vs Julia Adams | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Federica Bilardo and Julia Adams are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Szentendre, Hungary on 26 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture within the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for Bilardo's victory, suggesting the market has priced her as a decisive underdog or that minimal trading activity has occurred at this early stage.
ITF Women's matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when player form, recent match history, and surface conditions remain uncertain several weeks ahead of play. Historical precedent suggests that markets pricing players at extreme probabilities—either near 0% or 100%—often reflect sparse liquidity rather than confident consensus. With settlement not occurring until 2 June 2026, the order book remains thin and subject to repricing as match details crystallise and traders gain clarity on both players' current ranking trajectories and recent tournament results.
Key catalysts for market movement include confirmation of both players' participation, any injury announcements, and updated world ranking positions in the weeks preceding the tournament. Surface conditions at Szentendre and recent head-to-head records, if available, will inform revised probability estimates. Traders should monitor ITF tournament schedules and player withdrawal patterns, as cancellations or rescheduling beyond seven days trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, creating distinct risk profiles for positions held at current prices.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Szentendre: Federica Bilardo vs Julia Adams" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$632 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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