Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Filippo Romano and Otto Virtanen in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Romano' if Filippo Romano advances against Otto Virtanen. This market will resolve to 'Otto Virtanen' if Otto Virtanen advances against Filippo Romano. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 Winner | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Match O/U 21.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
Filippo Romano and Otto Virtanen are scheduled to meet in the Birmingham tournament on 5 June 2026, with the match originally set for 5:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Romano's advancement at 24 per cent, reflecting substantial backing for Virtanen despite the Italian's seeding position in the draw. This probability has formed across the market's liquidity pools as traders have positioned ahead of the settlement window closing on 12 June.
Romano enters as the higher-ranked player on recent ATP standings, though Virtanen has demonstrated competitive form on grass courts in the lead-up to Birmingham. Historical matchups between unseeded challengers and seeded players at grass-court tournaments show that surface-specific preparation often outweighs ranking, particularly when the lower-ranked player has logged recent competitive matches on similar surfaces. The 24 per cent probability suggests the market is pricing in both Romano's ranking advantage and Virtanen's grass-court credentials as roughly offsetting factors.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any late withdrawals through the ATP's official channels, as schedule changes or player illness could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Weather delays in Birmingham during early June are historically infrequent but possible; the settlement window extends seven days beyond the scheduled date, providing buffer for rescheduling. Recent form updates and practice-court reports from the tournament site will likely shift the order book in the final days before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$29 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $29 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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