Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Martin Damm in the Bordeaux, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Martin Damm. This market will resolve to 'Martin Damm' if Martin Damm advances against Arthur Rinderknech. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Arthur Rinderknech and Martin Damm are scheduled to meet in the Bordeaux tournament on 14 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 62% implied probability that Rinderknech advances, with this probability formed by the current order book depth on Polymarket. The settlement window closes on 21 May, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled match date for completion.
Rinderknech, a French player ranked in the ATP's mid-tier, has shown variable performance on clay and hard courts in recent seasons. Damm, a Czech player with extensive tour experience, presents a competitive matchup. Historical precedent suggests that matches between players of comparable ranking typically settle near 50-55% for the higher-ranked competitor, so the current 62% lean towards Rinderknech indicates market confidence in his form or surface preference relative to Damm at this specific event.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any injury announcements in the week preceding 14 May, as both players' recent match results and court conditions in Bordeaux will influence late movement. Weather delays are possible in May, though the seven-day resolution window provides substantial protection against minor scheduling disruptions. Any withdrawal by either player would trigger the 50-50 tie-break clause, making entry-point timing relevant for those trading the current spread.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$114 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $114 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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