Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tiago Pereira and Emilio Nava in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Pereira' if Tiago Pereira advances against Emilio Nava. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Tiago Pereira. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Emilio Nava | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Tiago Pereira and Emilio Nava are scheduled to meet in the Oeiras 4 tournament on 13 May 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The match will determine who advances from this round. On Polymarket's order book, traders are currently pricing Pereira's chances of victory at 20%, implying Nava is favoured at 80%. This probability reflects real-time trading activity and order-book depth as of today; the spread between bid and ask prices will tighten or widen depending on new information and volume.
Both players compete on the lower-tier professional circuit where form, injury status, and recent match outcomes carry substantial weight. Pereira has competed in Challenger and ITF events with mixed results; Nava similarly operates in this tier. Historical matchups between players of comparable ranking at this level show that the favourite's win rate typically ranges from 55–75% depending on surface, recent form, and head-to-head record. A 20% probability for Pereira suggests the market views Nava as a clear favourite, though this may reflect limited historical data between them or recent form disparities.
Traders should monitor tournament draws and any official announcements from the ATP Challenger Tour regarding schedule changes or player withdrawals. Surface conditions at Oeiras (typically clay) and late-breaking injury reports in the week before 13 May will be critical. The settlement window closes 20 May 2026 at 09:00 UTC, allowing seven days for the match to be completed; any cancellation or delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Emilio Nava" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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