Trade: Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Billy Harris and Yunchaokete Bu in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Billy Harris' if Billy Harris advances against Yunchaokete Bu. This market will resolve to 'Yunchaokete Bu' if Yunchaokete Bu advances against Billy Harris. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $30K
- Total Volume
- $8K
- 24h Volume
- $8K
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Completed Match | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 Winner | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Market context
Billy Harris and Yunchaokete Bu are scheduled to meet in Birmingham on 3 June 2026, with the match originally set for 5:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for Harris, suggesting near-parity in market expectations. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders continuously adjust positions based on incoming information and their assessments of both players' form.
Harris, a British player competing on home soil, typically commands modest home-court sentiment in early-round grass-court matches, though this advantage varies considerably depending on seeding and recent performance. Yunchaokete Bu's recent trajectory and ranking relative to Harris will substantially influence how the market reprices. Historical precedent suggests that matches between players of similar ranking at grass-court events tend to settle near 50-50 odds unless one player has demonstrated clear recent form advantages or possesses a documented grass-court specialisation.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any injury announcements from either player in the weeks preceding the match. Grass-court preparation tournaments and warm-up results in May 2026 will likely trigger significant repricing. Weather conditions at Birmingham on match day—particularly wind and court speed—can favour one playing style over another. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; any delays beyond that trigger a 50-50 resolution regardless of completion status.
Wikipedia Context
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Billy Birmingham
Billy Birmingham is an Australian humorist and sometimes sports journalist, most noted for his parodies of Australian cricket commentary in recordings under The Twelfth Man name.
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Birmingham Selly OakBirmingham Selly Oak is a constituency in the West Midlands, represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2024 by Alistair Carns of the Labour Party.
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Birmingham Bulls (American football)The Birmingham Bulls are an American football team based in Birmingham, United Kingdom. They play their home games at Kings Norton RFC in Hopwood. They are a member of the NFC Division One South in the BAFA National Leagues.
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Birmingham BulletsThe Birmingham Bullets were a British professional basketball team from Birmingham, England who competed in the British Basketball League (BBL). The club was founded in 1974 as Coventry Granwood before moving to Birmingham in 1980 as part of the team's sponsorship agreement with Fiat. The Bullets achieved some success in the BBL, mostly in the late 1990s and
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$8K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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