Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Kimmer Coppejans and Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kimmer Coppejans' if Kimmer Coppejans advances against Gilles Arnaud Bailly. This market will resolve to 'Gilles Arnaud Bailly' if Gilles Arnaud Bailly advances against Kimmer Coppejans. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Set 1 Winner | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Match O/U 22.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Kimmer Coppejans and Gilles Arnaud Bailly are scheduled to meet in a tennis match at the Tunis event on 14 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 62% implied probability that Coppejans advances, suggesting the market views him as a moderate favourite. This probability is being formed through real-time trading activity on the platform's order book, where traders are pricing in their assessments of both players' form, head-to-head record, and surface conditions.
Coppejans, a Belgian player, has competed primarily on the Challenger circuit and lower-tier ATP events, whilst Bailly, a French player, operates in a similar tier of professional tennis. Their relative rankings and recent match results will be central to understanding whether the 62% probability reflects genuine form differential or market sentiment based on limited historical data. Comparable matches between players of this ranking level typically see probabilities cluster around 55–65% for the higher-ranked or in-form player, suggesting the current pricing is within normal ranges for such encounters.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations, injury announcements, and any surface-specific preparation details released closer to the event date. Court conditions in Tunis—typically clay or hard court—can significantly influence outcomes. The settlement window extends to 21 May 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; any delays or cancellations within that window will trigger a 50-50 resolution, a material risk factor for positions held through the event.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $60K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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