Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Daniil Glinka in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gilles Arnaud Bailly' if Gilles Arnaud Bailly advances against Daniil Glinka. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Glinka' if Daniil Glinka advances against Gilles Arnaud Bailly. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Daniil Glinka | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Daniil Glinka are scheduled to meet in a tennis match in Tunis on 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Bailly's advancement at 53%, suggesting near-parity between the two players in the eyes of active traders. The settlement window closes on 20 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for completion; matches extending beyond that date without a winner will resolve to 50-50, introducing scheduling risk into the pricing.
Bailly, a French player, and Glinka, a Russian competitor, represent contrasting profiles on the ATP and Challenger circuits. Historical data on their head-to-head record, surface preferences on clay courts (Tunis typically hosts clay events), and recent form trajectories will inform whether the 53% probability reflects genuine competitive balance or undervaluation of one player's advantages. Comparable Challenger-level matches between unseeded or lower-ranked players often trade near 50-50 absent clear ranking differentials or recent momentum shifts.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and player withdrawal announcements through the ATP website and tournament organisers in the days preceding 13 May. Injury reports, last-minute schedule changes, or player form updates in the week before competition could shift the order book meaningfully. Weather disruptions in Tunisia or unexpected scheduling conflicts remain material risks that could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause if the match does not conclude within the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Daniil Glinka" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$202 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $202 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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