Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Tristan Boyer in the Prostejov, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Tristan Boyer. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Sebastian Baez and Tristan Boyer are scheduled to meet in the Prostejov tournament on 3 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 73% implied probability for Baez to advance, as shown across Polymarket's order book. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform, with the spread between backing and laying Baez's progression indicating where the marginal trader sits on the matchup.
Baez, an Argentine player ranked in the ATP's mid-tier, has demonstrated consistent performance on clay courts, where Prostejov is contested. Boyer, an American competitor, has shown variable results at similar-level tournaments. Historical ATP matchup data between players of comparable ranking and surface specialisation typically shows the clay-court specialist holding a 65–75% win probability, which aligns with the current market pricing. Recent tournament results from both players through spring 2026 would provide the most direct comparable for assessing whether the 73% figure reflects genuine edge or market overconfidence.
Key catalysts for traders include confirmation of both players' participation as the tournament approaches, any late-stage ranking shifts that might alter seeding or draw position, and surface conditions at Prostejov in early June. Weather delays or injury withdrawals in the week before 3 June could trigger repricing. The settlement window closes on 10 June at 10:30 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion or official rescheduling before the 50-50 tie-break resolution applies.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$47 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $47 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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