Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| July 31 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Google releasing a publicly accessible Gemini 3.5 model by end of June 2026 represents a specific milestone in the company's large language model roadmap. The current 19% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful scepticism about whether Google will reach this version number and make it generally available within the settlement window—roughly 18 months from now.
Google's release cadence for Gemini models provides useful historical context. Gemini 1.0 launched in December 2023 with limited availability, followed by broader rollout through 2024. Gemini 2.0 arrived in December 2024 with public access via Gemini.google.com and the mobile app. The progression from 1.0 to 2.0 took approximately one year. A jump to 3.5 by mid-2026 would require either an accelerated release schedule or a decision to skip intermediate versions—both plausible but not guaranteed. Comparable trajectories in the industry (OpenAI's GPT releases, Anthropic's Claude versions) show variable spacing between major versions, ranging from six months to over a year.
Traders should monitor Google's official announcements at I/O conferences and product blogs for any roadmap disclosures. The December 2024 Gemini 2.0 launch included no explicit timeline for 3.5, leaving the market to infer probability from engineering velocity and competitive pressure. Regulatory developments affecting model deployment, compute availability constraints, and whether Google opts for incremental versioning (3.0, 3.1, 3.5) versus skipping versions will all influence whether this specific resolution criterion is met.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Gemini 3.5 released by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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